Arcalis in Champion Hurdle
Most of this year’s top-of-the-market runners have met each other before, with honours spread among them, and those who are saying the race lacks last year’s quality will feel justified if one of these ‘usual suspects’ wins narrowly from one of his fellows. But which one? Hardy Eustace is now on the edge of the age limit for past winners; Brave Inca is well exposed this season; that many races in a championship-winning year would be unusual. Where those two are, Mac’s Joy is thereabouts. If Al Eile doesn’t get it soft, he would need further. If Briareus gets it firmish, he would be a factor for a place. If, but, if, but…However, there is one horse who has done nothing wrong, except for being – wisely – pulled out of it in bog-heavy ground last time. His connections tore up the Festival-records book last year and the way this animal won the Supreme Novices was quite breathtaking.So step up ARCALIS and take the crown!
Monday, March 13, 2006
Sunday, March 12, 2006
Champion Chase Ante-Post
Cheltenham Wednesday
It’s time to go for a change in the Champion Chase, with old-timer Moscow Flyer ruled out by age. The stats also say that the young pretender, Kauto Star, can’t do it at only six, and he may have to wait another year, good as his recent form is. They also say that the Grand Annual winner (Fota Island) has gone on to win this several times, but the staggering stat is that the last 10 Arkle winners to run in the Champion were ALL placed.. at least! And that means 20-1 shot Contraband, languishing on 42.0 on Betfair as I write, trained by a certain M.Pipe.
Saturday, March 11, 2006
Gold Cup Ante-Post
Cheltenham Friday
It’s Paul Nicholls’ year so far and, in any case, Martin Pipe has a shocking 0-26 record in the Gold Cup. Important stats include: no winner of this had finished out of the frame in a Cheltenham chase.
Monkerhostin and Beef Or Salmon are formidable opponents but Cornish Rebel, who likes Cheltenham and the prevailing going, is the value as a horse already placed in the Sun Alliance, Scottish National, Hennessy Gold Cup and Welsh National. He normally gives weight away on unsuitable ground and this trip is the middle-of-the way trip he needs; it’s made for him. Solid each-way
1 Cornish Rebel, 2 Beef Or Salmon, 3 Monkerhostin
Friday, March 10, 2006
Arsenal and Liverpool to share spoils
After their Champions League exertions against Real Madrid on Wednesday, Arsenal face a different challenge when they take on Liverpool at Highbury in the Premiership.
The Gunners will be buoyed after their dramatic two-legged win over the Spanish which takes them into the last eight.The Merseysiders were also on Champions League duty against Benfica in midweek however, they lost their grip on the trophy going out to the Portuguese 3-0 on aggregate.
What kind of reaction shall we get? Bet Direct will give you 21/10 for the draw and given both clubs’ circumstances and recent league form, we think that is the most likely outcome.
Thursday, March 09, 2006
Deception a key to poker success
Deception is probably even more important in poker than a straightforward bluff. Thus you come out betting with a drawing hand, rather than a made one. For example holding KH 10H with a flop of AH 6S 2H in hold’em. Your opponent is more likely to think you hold an Ace than the nut flush draw. Now, wonders of wonders, the turn card brings AH 6S 2H 8H. A check may elicit a bet from your opponent, because he now represents the flush that you actually hold. If he has made a flush you have nothing to fear. He will bet and you can get ready to go all-in. Nobody believes another player has a flush in hold’em when they themselves hold one.
Pointing your opponents in the wrong direction can be highly profitable.
Wednesday, March 08, 2006
Rovers to come good in second half
Saturday’s tea-time football comes from Ewood Park where this season’s dark horses Blackburn Rovers take on Aston Villa.
The Lancashire side’s physical style has earned them a reputation as one of the league’s bully-boys but they outclassed Spurs with their passing and movement at the weekend only, ironically, to lose 3-2.
However, we think Mark Hughes’s men will get their European aspirations boosted again by victory over the midland side and will take Bet Direct’s 10/3 for the draw at half-time, Rovers at full-time.
Tuesday, March 07, 2006
Arsenal to grab last 8 place
Britain’s Champions League hopes took a blow with Chelsea and Rangers exiting last night to Barcelona and Villarreal respectively but there remains some English interest in the competition.
Liverpool face a fight to hold onto the trophy they won so dramatically against AC Milan last year after going down 1-0 down to Benfica in the first leg in Portugal.
We’re not optimistic about this tie and think the Anfield men, in the unusual position of having to chase the game, could be caught out at the back with a draw probably their best hope.
We will have Bet Direct’s 8/5 for Benfica to win with a goal of a start and by adding that to Arsenal’s 6/4 for a home win against Real Madrid, a decent double can be collected.
The Highbury side, 1-0 up from the first leg in Spain, were devastating against Fulham at the weekend and will face a fragile Madrid side.
It won’t be easy and the Gunners’ home form is relatively poor but we think they can grab a last-eight place.
Monday, March 06, 2006
Manchester United to hold Wigan again
Who could blame Paul Jewell and his Wigan side for looking at this game against Manchester United with anything other than fear.
The Latics have surprised everyone in their debut season in the Premiership apart from, it would appear, the men from Old Trafford.
4-0 seems to be regular gap between these two sides and all Wigan’s frailties were exposed in the Carling Cup final at the Millennium Stadium last Sunday.
We can’t see any joy this time either for Jewell and will be taking Bet Direct’s 4/1 for Wayne Rooney to get the opener as he did in Cardiff.
Sunday, March 05, 2006
All square at White Hart Lane
Two of the surprise packages this season, Tottenham Hotspur and Blackburn Rovers, meet in the Premiership at White Hart Lane.
The much-improved home side are still on course for a European spot but Mark Hughes’ men are close behind them, not a situation you would have envisaged at the start of the season.
The Lancashire men, a team of battlers if nothing else, pulled off a great result against Arsenal in their last game but we think they may do well to grab a point against the Gunners’ North London neighbours Take Bet Direct’s 11/5 for the game to end level.
Saturday, March 04, 2006
Crouch to score first
Charlton travel to Anfield to face on-form Liverpool in the Premiership and it’s another daunting task for the Londoners.
The Koppites are on a roll. A first-half strike from Harry Kewell against Manchester City gave Rafa Benitez's men their third successive 1-0 win in the league and put them level with rivals Manchester United but still well behind leaders Chelsea.
There is little value in a straight win so we will be having a punt on Peter Crouch to follow up his first international goal against Uruguay in midweek and score first with Bet Direct offering 9/2.
Friday, March 03, 2006
United too powerful for Crewe
Sheffield United will look to get back on track in their quest for the Premiership when they take on Crewe at Bramall Lane.
The faltering Blades, still on the tail of Reading, seem to be on the television every week but they have yet to convince armchair fans that they could survive in the top flight if and when they get there.
The visitors shouldn’t cause too many problems however and we think the Blades will coast to a comfortable win. Take Bet Direct’s 5/6 for United to win starting a goal down.
Thursday, March 02, 2006
Two lively outside bets at Lingfield
The UK racing has again been decimated on Thursday with both the turf cards been abandoned – however the Polytrack surface at Lingfield Park again comes to the rescue.
The final race at 5.10 looks a competitive affair but a little interest has been lost in the race with the news that Jake The Snake is a non –runner. The five-year-old was due to be having his first race since winning over two years ago and was well-fancied.
The best strategy may now to be to back two lively outsiders each-way – in the hope of getting one of them home first otherwise damage limitation with the place part of the bet.
KEW THE MUSIC and ALEKHINE were both trading mid-morning at around the 14/1 mark and both represent in-form trainers.
Wednesday, March 01, 2006
England to grab first half goals
The actual football aspect of the England versus Uruguay friendly seems to have been forgotten as every issue under the sun from the mental state of Sol Campbell to the tedious saga of Sven-Goran Eriksson’s possible replacement is chewed over.
But this is a vital match for England as they prepare for the summer's World Cup in Germany.
A strange choce of opponets one could argue. Who knows how the South Americans will treat this game?
Regardless of Uruguay's attitude, we think England will grab a few goals before the interval and the substitutions and tactical changes which will inevitably halt the flow of the match.
On that basis we suggest Bet Direct’s 9/4 for the first half to show more goals than the second.
If England’s recent friendly record is uninspiring then Scotland’s is disastrous.
The Scots have not won a challenge match at Hampden since March 1996 when Ally McCoist scored the winner in a 1-0 win over Australia.
Switzerland are the visitors and will be looking to build for their World Cup campaign and we expect them to be good enough to get a draw. Take Bet Direct’s offer of 21/10 for the stalemate.
