The reward/risk ratio
The term ‘gambling’ is often confused with ‘risk assessment’. Entrepeneurs invest in the belief that the value of the investment will eventually outweigh the cost. But that is insufficient. If you invest £100,000 and make a profit after a year of hard work of just £5,000; then you would have done better putting your money in the bank and spending your time doing something more productive.
Successful business men make accurate assessments of reward/risk ratio. Sometimes they may get lucky or, alternatively unlucky. That is why they prefer to spread their risk. Poker players make similar calculations. But then we all know, poker is often more like real life than life itself.
Tuesday, February 28, 2006
Monday, February 27, 2006
Watch out for second half goals at Hereford
Hereford take on Stevenage Borough in Monday night’s live televised Conference match.
One can hardly mention Hereford without thinking about their famous FA Cup tie against Newcastle United in the early 70s but they are keen to recapture their league status evidenced by their 2-1 victory over Aldershot in their last outing.
Stevenage a moved up to fourth place after easing past Canvey Island last week but we think home advantage will make the difference but only when the game opens up after the interval Bet Direct are offering even money for more goals to be scored in the second half and we will be having a few quid on this unusual but fun bet.
Sunday, February 26, 2006
Raising on a Morton's Fork
You have 9D8D. There has been a bet before the flop which you called. The flop is AD 9C 3D. There is a bet. Against one opponent you must have either the best made hand or the only flush draw.
Such a possibility I refer to as an example of Morton’s Fork, after the income tax inspector in medieval times. He worked on the principle that if a member of the gentry were living in apparent poverty, he must be concealing his wealth. If he were living high on the hog, then he could again afford heavy taxes.
In such circumstances you are entitled to raise. You are either winning or have a strong drawing hand. Your opponent needs such as A-8 or A-A to be favourite against your holding. Even if the worst comes to the worst, you are better than 2/1 against winning the pot.
Saturday, February 25, 2006
United best in Carling test
The Carling Cup final from the Millennium Stadium throws up the rather unusual pairing of Manchester United and Wigan.
While the aristocrats of Old Trafford are well used to showpiece occasions the Premiership upstarts are in their first senior final.
The Red Devils are strong favourites and we can’t any logical reason why they will leave Wales empty handed.
There’s no tempting odds for a straight United win but Bet Direct will give you 3/1 for half-time/Manchester United and that’s the bet we will recommend.
Friday, February 24, 2006
Hearts for easy win
Saturday’s Tennent’s Scottish Cup quarter-final between Hearts and Partick Thistle is a lunchtime kick-off and the Jags will be hoping to catch the Jambos asleep.
The Bell’s First Division won through the last round in penalties over Inverness Caledonian Thistle at Firhill but will find the SPL’s second top side a different proposition in their own patch.
We can’t see anything but a Hearts win and indeed it could be by a few goals so we‘ll got a correct score punt. Bet Direct will give you 6/1 for 3-0 and an insurance bet of 8/1 for 4-0 is also worth taking.
Thursday, February 23, 2006
Swansea to sneak home
After the midweek frenzy of Champion’s League football Friday night brings the Coca-Cola League One clash between Swansea and Huddersfield Town.
Fourth meets third in this keenly-anticipated contest and with both sides obviously still harbouring championship hopes the three points are crucial.
Most bookies’ odds show little between the two sides, always an indication of just tight this match could be.
But we won’t sit on the fence. The Welsh team are 5/4 with Bet Direct for the home win and we reckon they have enough to sneak it.
Wednesday, February 22, 2006
Playing loose and aggresive
In all wagering activities you should try to buck the market. If the stock market is high, that is the time to sell. You may miss the final flourish before shares plummet, but you cannot time things perfectly.
When betting on a horse, you should be looking for a bet which is good value for what you perceive to be the horse’s chances.
When playing poker, the playing may be slow and cautious. You should play loosely and aggressively. But be careful, the last thing you want is for your hand always to be up against the lone best hand at the table. If the game is vigorous and loose, you should play more defensively and tighter.
Tuesday, February 21, 2006
Half time draw for the Blues
Many people would have liked to have seen Chelsea play Barcelona in this year’s Champions League final but alas both sides were fated to meet in the last 16.
Previous games between these sides have been memorable and there is no reason to doubt the first leg at Stamford Bridge will be any different.
The Blues will have all their big guns back after the fright they got against Colchester in the FA Cup and the Catalans will field their usual array of superstars.
Bet Direct can hardly split the two teams and although it may seem like sitting on the fence, we think 2/1 for the draw is the tip of the night.
Up in Glasgow, Rangers’ unlikely Champions League sojourn continues and their historic venture into the knock-out stages has seen them paired with Villarreal.
Alex McLeish’s side, so inconsistent in the SPL this season, have saved their best performances - and most of their luck - for Europe.
Villarreal lost only one goal in their group stages so don’t expect an avalanche of goals from the Light Blues - if any.
Bet Direct’s best offer, from our point of view, is the even money available for the draw at half-time.
Monday, February 20, 2006
Accrington on the brink
Conference leaders Accrington Stanley are on the brink of making history as they face Morecambe at home in Monday night’s live televised game.
The Reds are 13 points ahead of the second-placed Shrimps and some bookies and pundits insist it is a foregone conclusion the club with the nostalgic name will make an emotional return to the Football League, 44 years after they were forced to resign because of debts.
And the Stanley players will be boosted by the appearance of the cameras.
The North West side have been on television seven times since they returned to non-league’s top flight and have only lost once.
Getting value odds, of course, is always the difficult thing and so we have to search around for the more quirkier bets and we think we have found one.
Bet Direct will give you even money that there will be more goals in the second half than in the first.
We think it will be a tight opening 45 minutes so we will have a few quid on that happening.
Sunday, February 19, 2006
Sorting out the Fontwell pair of Kings
Big race on Sunday is the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell at 3.30.
It looks a competitive affair too, but trainer Alan King looks to have strong claims with his pair MY WAY DE SOLZEN and Mughas.
King had a nice winner at Wincanton on Saturday with Voy Por Ustedes who looks a star in the making and the stable have a one in five strike-rate over the past fortnight.
Jockey bookings and the formbook suggest that My Way De Solzen is the one to be on of the King pair today. He beat Neptune Collonges by five lengths at Chepstow over Christmas and that rival has since gone on to win two races.
He really looks a class apart from his rivals in this event.
Saturday, February 18, 2006
Draw in Sunday's FA Cup clash
Sunday’s big FA Cup fifth round tie sees Aston Villa welcoming Manchester City to Villa Park.
Neither side have shown any sort of consistency this season and in many ways it’s a toss of a coin as to how they will play on the day.
David O’Leary’s side have improved a little since the turn of the year but they are a club who never seem more than two games from slumping back into a crisis.
Indeed, they were beaten last time out at home by a less than inspirational Newcastle side.
However, City's away form is easily the worst in the top 12 with just 11 points to show from a possible 36 although they have a 3-1 win over Villa this season under their belt.
We think these two sides will be too close to call so we’ll be taking some of Bet Direct’s 11/5 for the draw.
Friday, February 17, 2006
Newcastle to win starting a goal down
Like most sides who lose their manager, Newcastle have immediately begun a fight back of sorts since Graeme Souness exited stage left.
It's two wins from two games since Glenn Roeder took over as interim boss at St James Park and only a calamity will stop them making it three out of three against the Southampton in their FA Cup fifth round clash.
To show that changing your manager doesn’t always work out in the medium to long term Southampton have just have won just three out of 12 since George Burley took over Also, the shot-shy visitors will be without recent signings Grzegorz Rasiak and Richard Chaplow who are cup tied so we don’t see much hope of an upset - even though Luton showed against Reading last night that anything is possible.
Bet Direct will give you 10/11 for Newcastle to win starting a goal down which we think is a good thing. And it’s not often we have been able to say that about the Toon this season.
Thursday, February 16, 2006
League leaders to notch up another win
Luton Town are the latest side to try and halt the runaway train that is Championship leaders Reading at Kenilworth Road.
The Royals went to nearest challengers Sheffield United during the week and battled for a 1-1 draw while inconsistent Luton were involved in a dramatic 3-3 draw with Cardiff following their 5-1 drubbing by Preston.
Reading boss Steve Coppell insists he is taking nothing for granted despite seeing his side extend their record unbeaten run to 33 league games and maintain their 12-point cushion at the Championship summit but we won’t be kidded.
The league leaders will be too strong for Mike Newell’s men and we think Bet Direct’s odds of 11/10 for an away win is too good to miss.
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
It takes all sorts
I was recently in Richmond Market. The stall-holder told me she had won £20,000 on a scratch card. She spent some of the money on a holiday and some on a new car. She blew the rest gambling it away. ‘But I thoroughly enjoyed myself,’ she told me.
Such a person is by no means a degenerate gambler. She receives value from the bet in the form of enjoyment and does not gamble beyond her means.
It all leaves me cold, but who am I to knock other people’s pleasure?
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
Bolton to seal narrow win in Europe
Almost unnoticed, European football returns to our screens with Bolton taking on Marseille at the Reebok in the first leg of their UEFA Cup last-32 tie.
The unfashionable Wanderers are now established in the Premiership and they were unfortunate in many ways not to beat Arsenal at Highbury at the weekend.
However, Sam Allardyce’s men are not renowned for going on goal sprees and they will be happy enough to take a one goal lead over to France next week.
Bet Direct will give you 11/2 for Bolton to win 1-0, the score we reckon to be most likely.
Sunday, February 12, 2006
Hammers to move into top six
Monday night’s football comes from the east end of London where West Ham United entertain Birmingham City looking to make it seven wins on the trot.
And it may seem hard to believe but the happy Hammers have the incentive of a top-six spot if they succeed.
Alan Pardew’s men have often struggled at home with the Premiership big boys but Birmingham should not intimidate after another indifferent season which has seen them triumph just twice away from St Andrews - against fellow relegation candidates Sunderland and West Brom.
Steve Bruce’s side have also lost four of their last five on their travels and will be severely weakened through suspension and injury.
Need more convincing? West Ham have already beat the Blues this season, coming from a goal down to win 2-1 back in December so all the signs are facing the same way.
Bet Direct will give you 5/6 for the home win which we reckon are decent enough odds.
Man City to see off Addicks in 2nd half
Sunday afternoon sees faltering Manchester City take on mid-table Charlton and Stuart Pearce's men will also want to get back on track after faltering in recent weeks.
The Omens are on City's side. They are unbeaten in six and have already thrashed the Charlton 5-2 at The Valley earlier in the season while they beat them 4-0 in this fixture last season.
The Addicks had an impressive start to the season but have struggled recently, especially away from home with the surprise draw at Chelsea the only point they've picked up away from The Valley since the end of October.
Their midweek win over Liverpool offers encouragement but even then we find it difficult to bet against City.
Bet Direct will give you 7/2 for a draw half-time, Man City full-time and that's where our money will be going.
Saturday, February 11, 2006
Hat-trick for Olly at Ayr
Newbury finally got the thumbs down after four inspections which has taken away a lot of the quality from Saturday’s racing. Warwick also fell victim to the frost, leaving all-weather cards at Lingfield and Wolverhampton and a jumps card at Ayr where OLIVERJOHN can complete a hat-trick in the 3.20.
Trained by Lucinda Russell, Oliverjohn has hit form in style – appreciating the give in the ground – and was a winner over course and distance last month beating Moment Of Madness by five lengths.
With eight runners set to go to post, and trading at around 5/1, he looks a sound each-way proposition.
Friday, February 10, 2006
More trouble for Redknapp
Manchester United are the visitors to Portsmouth in a fixture that Harry Redknapp will look upon with a sense of dread.
Despite a busy time in the January transfer window Pompey have had a depressing year so far with just one point from five Premiership games, scoring just two goals and conceding 11.
The home side, if they are searching for omens, have form on their side in this fixture - they've won in each of their previous two seasons in the Premiership.
However, United will not be caught out this time. Fergie’s team have won five of their last six and we’re confident they will extend that run with little problem.
We tipped Arjen Robben to score for Chelsea in midweek and Reading to beat Southampton by two clear goals so we’re on a roll.
And with that form, we suggest you take Bet Direct’s even money offer for the Red Devils to be winning at half-time and full-time.
Thursday, February 09, 2006
Reading to overcome one goal handicap
Fresh from their disappointing FA Cup fourth round exit at the hands of Birmingham in midweek, runaway Championship leaders Reading get the chance to get their title bid back on track when Southampton visit.
Steve Coppell rested key men for the cup tie as the Royals’ boss has always maintained promotion is the priority for his side.
The struggling Saints are 43 points behind their opponents and shouldn’t pose too much of a threat unless the home side collapse in front of their own fans, something they haven’t done so far this season.
But the downside of strong favourites is low odds and so we’ll go for one of our favourite handicap bets.
Bet Direct will give you 11/10 with Reading starting the game a goal down and after tipping Arjen Robben to score at any time during Chelsea’s win over Everton on Wednesday, we are confident of making it two-in-a-row.
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
The extended gap concept
If the betting comes to you in poker, then you should bet or raise provided your hand is in the top 50% of all hands. However, another player interferes and raises £100 into a £100 pot before it is your turn. Clearly you must reassess your action and take note that you are getting 2/1 odds. Thus you should pass unless your hand is in the top 33%. Sklansky calls the gap between 33% and 50% the gap concept.
Then you should reraise if your hand figure to in the top 50% of all hands you don’t pass. Thus you raise if your hand is in the top 16%. The gap between 16% and 50% I refer to as the extended gap concept. I would have preferred to use the term ratchet principle, but Sklansky got there first. This applies to all poker games, but what such percentages mean is partly up to you.
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
Robben to score
On the face of it, Wednesday’s FA Cup fourth-round replay between Chelsea and Everton at Stamford Bridge looks rather one-sided and we don’t consider a shock to be on the cards. The improving Scousers were worthy of their 1-1 draw in the first game at Goodison but surely they have lost their chance of a surprise against Jose Mourinho’s men.
Even Everton boss Davie Moyes has joked: "We will have to do pretty well even to get the tie to penalties!"
The problem for the punter is that the odds for a straight home win are far too skimpy so we have to look for special bets to make our money.
Despite the shenanigans of Blues wide-man Arjen Robben during their 2-0 win over Liverpool, the Dutchman is playing well and is 11/10 with Bet Direct to score at any time during the match.
We think that’s one of the best value bets on offer in this particular encounter and will back that hunch up with a few shillings - we suggest you follow suit.
Monday, February 06, 2006
Blades to continue promotion trail
Monday night’s Championship match between Sheffield United and Watford promises an exciting 90 minutes.
No matter what people think of Blades’ boss Neil Warnock - and as we know he is not always spoken about in a complimentary manner- he has been able to draw some outstanding performances and results from his players over the last few years.
After several near misses, the Holy Grail of Premiership football beckons for second-placed United who beat Derby 1-0 last week to continue their pursuit of leaders Reading.
Watford, still with promotion in their sights themselves, will offer a stern challenge but we reckon they won’t be able to halt the red-and-white runaway train.
Bet Direct will give you 4/5 for the home win which is not great odds but enough to tempt us to have a little punt.
Sunday, February 05, 2006
No value in Demon
The cotton wool comes off Henrietta Knight’s new star elect RACING DEMON at Chepstow this afternoon – however the meeting must survive a third inspection at 10.30am after an overnight frost. At a forecast 1/3 however, the race is hardly a betting proposition.
In Ireland there is a good card at Punchestown where CENTRAL HOUSE gets the chance to gain compensation for his most unfortunate and dramatic defeat over Christmas where jockey Roger Loughran started the celebrations too early. Connections have stayed faithful with Loughran who will be anxious to put matters right.
Best bet of the day maybe BOHEMIAN SPIRIT in the opener at Musselburgh (1.10). The Nicky Richards trained runner chases a hat-trick and has the services of the very capable Rose Davidson in the saddle.
Saturday, February 04, 2006
Hoo can win at Sandown ?
A cracking card to look forward to at Sandown on Saturday which has been boosted by the addition of the Victor Chandler Handicap Chase from the abandoned card at Cheltenham last weekend.
It will be a totally different race at Sandown – right-handed for starters - and previous course and distance winner HOO LA BALOO looks a reasonable bet. Trained by the in-form Paul Nicholls who knocked bookies for six at Wincanton two weekends ago, Hoo La Baloo has taken time to find winning form but is now on a sequence which has seen him win five of his last six races. There was no disgrace in his only defeat during this sequence – a four length runner-up to the hugely promise Racing Demon over course and distance in December.
Top weight Dempsey is an obvious danger.
Friday, February 03, 2006
Tottenham to dominate against Charlton
The first of two live Premiership games on Sunday comes from White Hart Lane and features the London derby between Spurs and Charlton.
Neither side are too convincing at the moment although the home side still retain lofty hopes of qualifying for Europe this season.
Bet Direct are offering 8/5 for Tottenham to be winning at half-time and full-time - decent odds in this match.
The ‘big’ game, as it were, comes later on from Stamford Bridge where faltering Chelsea take on pretenders Liverpool.
Is there a crisis at the Bridge? Jose Mourinho's side were held to a third successive 1-1 draw at Aston Villa after taking only a point against Charlton at home plus drawing away to Everton in the FA Cup.
However, strangely, they have increased their lead at the top of the table after other results went their way.
Victory for Chelsea in this tussle though should just about finish the chasing pack off. Bet Direct will give you 4/5 for the home win - we think the Blues will edge it.
Thursday, February 02, 2006
Rangers to dominate
Football from north of the border offers up the Tennent’s Scottish Cup fourth round tie between Rangers and Hibernian at Ibrox.
The Gers have recovered after their horrendous SPL form earlier in the season scuppered any hopes of retaining their title and indeed they now also have a Champions League tie against Villarreal to look forward to.
However, the Light Blue’s defence continues to inspire unease and there is a fragility about Alex McLeish’s side.
But Hibs are on the back of a 4-1 derby drubbing by rivals Hearts and travel west along the M8 without the influential midfielder Scott Brown and experienced stopper Gary Smith.
Bet Direct’s price for a home win is too short at 2/5 but take 10/11 for Rangers half-time- Rangers full-time.
Looking for a double? Well, at tea-time Manchester United hope to bounce back from their 4-3 defeat by Blackburn when they welcome Fulham.
The Londoners - the only top flight side without an away win this season - should pose little threat even to a more fragile than usual United defence and we reckon Fergie’s men will get back on track.
Take Bet Direct’s 5/6 for United to win with Fulham getting a goal of a start.
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
Southwell double Thursday
With a bleak forecast for the turf racing on Thursday – many eyes will turn to the all-weather at Southwell in search of a winner.
MAGIC AMOUR is no world beater but is at least consistent in this selling grade. He has already notched up two victories in banded company this season and that reads very well in the context of the poor quality look to the 1.50 race.
He maybe worth doubling up with WESTPORT in the 2.20. John Gosden’s runner is fancied to turn the tables on likely favourite Airbound. They were fourth and third respectively on their racecourse debuts at Lingfield last month but Westport showed the most potential.
